The Week Ahead for the Global Economy and Markets
As detailed below, market participants will also be closely scrutinizing a new wave of global economic data, which is poised to shed light on both the trajectory of global growth and underlying inflationary pressures.
Key Economic Indicators:
Tuesday's US CPI inflation report will be monitored closely for indications of any price "pass-through" effect from the recently announced tariffs. Beyond the headline figure, analysts will scrutinize core CPI to assess underlying inflationary trends at a time of a notable dispersion of views on what the Federal Reserve should be doing.
Thursday's US retail sales numbers are the major event for assessing the robustness of consumer demand and overall economic health.
In between these two releases, the Fed's Beige Book will be published, containing interesting information on current economic conditions gathered by the 12 Federal Reserve Banks from businesses, community organizations, economists, and market experts across their respective districts. It's often scrutinized for emerging trends not yet visible in official statistics.
Turning to China, it’s a heavy week of data releases, including industrial production, retail sales, GDP, and trade.
We will also get industrial production data for the EU.
Policy Discussions:
Policy discussions this week include the G-20 Finance Ministers meeting in South Africa, where little substance is expected in terms of major policy shifts or breakthroughs. Nonetheless, statements and communiqués from this gathering will be parsed for any shifts in global economic coordination or rhetoric.
Market participants will also be interested in remarks from ECB (European Central Bank) central bankers, which could offer insights into their evolving monetary policy stance amidst slower Eurozone growth.
Finally, Tuesday's comments from the UK’s top two economic policymakers, Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Governor Andrew Bailey, will be timely given the recently disappointing growth and fiscal data. The next day, Britain will release its inflation data.
#economy #markets #growth #inflation #retailsales #tariffs #trade
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Had to drive to Cambridge at the weekend to vote in the election because I had missed the deadline for online voting (that was fun, thanks to roadworks on the Motorway overnight) - but I Did vote…
There was a fascinating interview with President Trump, that was played in full on the Radio 4 Today programme at 8am UK time, between Trump and Gary O'Donoghue, BBC Chief North America Correspondent (who is blind).
The big news item was that Trump realises that Putin has played him. But the interview ran for 20 minutes and was quite heartfelt. O’Donoghue was at the golf course in Scotland with Trump when the result of the UK “Brexit” referendum was announced in 2016, he was covering the rally last year when the attempted assassination took place - during the interview he asks Trump whether that incident changed him.
Trump is clearly looking forwards to his second state visit to the UK in September, but is relaxed about not addressing Parliament because it will still be in recess.
Fascinating interview. I have spent 6 months convinced that Trump was wrong about Everything (free trade, diversity, global warming & renewables, academic freedom, that he has a good relationship with Putin). At least that last item on the list can be crossed off.
You omitted the Epstein materials, the release of which is likely to change the macro picture.